Published October 19, 2026 in Market Update

One part of this market is cooling while two parts stay more competitive

By Mike Boone

Real estate, DOTW + Market Udates: Bon Air + N Chesterfield

Nationally, Redfin reported that home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September 2026. That number sounds alarming. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 436 homes sold across ZIPs 23235, 23236 and 23832 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 2.1% from the same period in 2025. The national story does not describe this market evenly. Two ZIPs here are still moving fast. One is not.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is the same rate Redfin called a three-year high on October 8. Affordability is a real pressure everywhere. Even so, buyers in 23235 and 23236 are competing for homes. Pricing power in 23832 has shifted.

The three ZIPs at a glance

ZIP 23235: still the tightest of the three

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 138 homes sold in ZIP 23235 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 3% from the same period in 2025. The median sale price reached $450,000, up 2.9% year over year. Homes sat on the market a median of just 10 days, five days shorter than a year ago. Half of all homes sold above list price. Supply sits at 1.2 months. This ZIP is moving.

Nearly half of homes in 23235 went under contract within two weeks of listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put that share at 49.6% for the three months ending August 31, 2026. Inventory rose 18.2% from a year ago, so a few more choices are appearing. But demand is absorbing them quickly.

ZIP 23236: more listings, more buyers

ZIP 23236 saw the biggest jump in sales volume. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 116 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 28.9% from 2025. The median sale price was $401,750, up 2.4%. More than half of homes, 50.8%, went under contract within two weeks. That share rose 3.1 points from a year ago.

Inventory in 23236 actually fell 3.3% from a year ago while sales jumped nearly 29%. Pending sales rose 14%. That combination keeps pricing firm. The sale-to-list ratio of 100.3% means most homes are closing right at or above asking price.

ZIP 23832: the one that is cooling

ZIP 23832 tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 182 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 10.3% from 2025. Days on market rose to a median of 25, eight days longer than a year ago. The sale-to-list ratio slipped to 99.8%, down 1.3 points. That means the average home here closed just below list price.

The share of homes sold above list in 23832 fell 9.5 points to 31.9%. Only about 1 in 3 homes is clearing list price. The share going under contract within two weeks dropped 8.5 points to 31.8%. Pending sales fell 6.3%. Prices are still up 4.9% from a year ago, but the momentum that drove them is easing.

How the three ZIPs compare on speed

How the three ZIPs compare on pricing power

What the national picture adds

Redfin estimated 1,510,784 home sellers and 928,892 homebuyers nationally in September 2026. That is the most sellers since March 2020 and the fewest buyers since 2013. Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6%. That imbalance is real, and it is part of why 23832 is taking longer to sell. But 23235 and 23236 are absorbing supply faster than the national trend suggests.

The National Association of Realtors reported 3.99 million existing-home sales nationally in September 2026, with prices up 1.3% and inventory at 1.60 million homes. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% and the 15-year at 6.71% as of October 15, 2026. Higher rates slow buyers everywhere. In the tighter ZIPs here, demand is still absorbing that pressure. In 23832, it is showing.

What this means if you own or are buying

If you own in 23235 or 23236, the data from the three months ending August 31, 2026 shows your ZIP still favors sellers. Pricing at list or just above is being rewarded. Homes are not sitting long.

If you own in 23832, the data shows more patience is required from buyers, and more precision is required from sellers. The sale-to-list ratio of 99.8% and 25 median days on market mean overpricing will cost you time. Buyers in 23832 have a little more room to negotiate than they did a year ago.

These are ZIP-level numbers. One street, one neighborhood, or one price point inside a ZIP can read differently from the whole. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counts every closed sale, but the story of your specific home takes a closer look.