Published October 1, 2026 in Market Update

Homes That Sit Sell for Less Than They First Asked

By Mike Boone

Real estate, Forecast Engine Ai

Sellers hear a lot of things. Price high and leave room to negotiate. You can always drop later. Buyers will make offers no matter how long it sits. I pulled every listing in this market through October 27, 2026, and the data says something different.

612 lived-in homes sold. I sorted them by how long they took to find a buyer. The pattern is hard to argue with.

What the Numbers Actually Show

The typical home that found a buyer in the first month got 100% of what it first asked. It sold in 9 days. 328 homes landed here.

Homes that took into the second month got 97.4% of what they first asked. That is a real gap, not a rounding error. The typical home in that group sat for 46 days.

The longer a home sat, the more the seller gave up. By month three, that figure was 96.2%. By month four, 95.6%. By months five or six, 94.2%. That last group waited a typical 146 days.

What I Would Do Differently

First, I would price to land a buyer in month one. Homes that sold in month one got 100% of what they first asked. Homes that waited until month two got 97.4%. That gap does not close on its own, and dropping the price later is how you pay for starting too high. The price you pick on day one is the most important decision you make.

Second, I would not assume a price drop fixes the problem. Right now, 42.6% of the 101 homes for sale have already cut their price. The typical cut so far is $10,400. Those sellers are not recovering lost ground. They are paying the cost of the wrong number at the start. A cut signals to buyers that the home sat, and buyers who see that ask for more.

Third, I would watch the bidding war data before setting my number. There were 73 bidding wars in this file. The last one went under contract on July 31. In the 88 days since then, 21 lived-in homes went under contract and none of them triggered one. The market that was paying over asking in the spring is not the same market you are selling into today. Pricing as if it were is how sellers end up in month four getting 95.6% instead of 100%.

None of this means the market is broken. The typical home across all 612 sales still got 99.6% of what it first asked, and the typical days to sell was 26. The market rewards sellers who price honestly from the start. It penalizes the ones who do not.

What This Means for You

If you are selling, the supply picture matters. There are 101 homes for sale right now and the market is absorbing them at a pace that would clear everything in 4.4 months. Under 4 months favors sellers. Over 6 favors buyers. At 4.4, you are still in reasonable shape, but that window narrows if you price yourself out of month one. The truth the numbers tell is simple: the price you pick on day one is the most important decision you make.

If you are buying, 43 of the 101 homes for sale have already cut their price, and the typical cut is $10,400. That tells you where the negotiating room is. Homes that have been sitting for two months or more are already priced lower than they started, and sellers there have shown they will move. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That rate affects your payment on every dollar you borrow, so buying below first asking price is not just satisfying. It is meaningful.